TUCSON, Ariz. (KGUN) — Analysts with GasBuddy say businesses should prepare for produce and grocery costs to rise as gas prices average nearly $4 a gallon.
Experts predict wholesale prices for bulk produce will increase. Shipping companies are already raising delivery costs and adding gas surcharges to make up for fuel costs.
"Restaurants are going to see a jump in the price of produce, and they're going to see a jump in the cost of getting those food deliveries on a weekly basis," GasBuddy Petroleum Expert Patrick De Haan said. "Produce and just about any groceries, supply chains, and factories that produce products that have to be moved to the market, everything. I mean, you can't really underestimate the profound impact this will have to produce," Patrick De Haan said.
Local businesses in Tucson are already seeing higher shipping costs hit their stores and drive up prices.
Eastside bakery La Baguette Parisienne has been delivering fresh bread and pastries across Tucson for over 40 years. Still, higher gas prices are making those delivery runs more expensive and putting a strain on the business.
Owner Kimberly Ireland says restaurants all over Tucson count on her handmade pastries.
"We have a delivery van, and we just take it wherever it needs to go, a lot of great Tucson restaurants have been with this bakery for 40 years. " Ireland said.
Those deliveries stretch across town, and filling up her delivery van costs more than ever.
"With a big van, it takes more gas. It’s not helping small business owners, and I’m sure it’s affecting many others, too," Ireland said.
Ireland has thought about adding gas fees but knows many of her clients are already struggling.
"There are a lot of restaurants that are not doing well right now," Ireland said. "If I can keep that down for them, they keep giving me their business," Ireland said.
The pain does not stop at the pump. Some vendors are charging more for shipping, and pastry ingredients like flour and eggs keep going up.
"The cost of the product has really gone up — the cost of flour, the cost of eggs has been really high," Ireland said.
So far, pastry prices have not changed, but Ireland says she may have to reevaluate if gas prices do not drop.
"A big part of this place is being affordable, so people can enjoy special treats without breaking the bank. I want to continue that as long as I can," Ireland said.
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JJ McKinney joined KGUN 9 in July of 2025 as a multimedia journalist. He graduated from Colorado State University in May of 2025 with a degree in journalism and media communications and a minor in law. With a background in investigative reporting and documentary filmmaking, JJ is dedicated to giving a platform to the voices of his community. Share your story ideas and important issues with JJ by emailing jj.mckinney@kgun9.com or by connecting on Instagram, Twitter, or Facebook.
