After a stinging loss in 2024 and close to a year of near-powerlessness in Washington, many Democrats are heading into Tuesday’s elections with something they haven’t felt in some time: hope.
Buoyed by polling showing President Donald Trump’s approval rating underwater and Democrats more trusted to address key issues, many expect Democratic candidates to come out ahead in most if not all of the key races facing voters on Tuesday, among them the New Jersey and Virginia governors’ races, New York City mayoral race, Pennsylvania judicial elections and California Proposition 50, which authorizes mid-decade redistricting in that state.
“Democrats should come out winning all five of these contests,” said J. Miles Coleman, a longtime election researcher who serves as associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ nonpartisan newsletter. “I think if they don't, that would catch my attention.”
Because Tuesday’s races represent the first general election of Trump’s second term, voices on both sides of the aisle are already trying to draw conclusions about what the election results might mean for the long term. Campaign strategists and media politicos will be watching election margins and specific county results closely, eager to discern trends about voters’ attitudes and behaviors heading into next year’s crucial midterm elections.
To be sure, every election reflects a unique time and place, and some experts cautioned not to read too much into any one race too much.
“I never take away much from these despite/because of all of D.C. overrating them,” Doug Heye, a Republican political strategist who worked in the George W. Bush administration, told Scripps News. “Only three off-off year elections since the 1960s saw one party take both [Virginia] and [New Jersey], then go on to sweep the following midterms: 1993, 2005, and 2009. Since 1976, the party that loses the White House has won the Virginia governor’s race every time but once.”
“No grand conclusions to draw,” Heye noted.
Still, which candidates over- and under-perform will surely impact party leaders’ approach to subsequent races. As such, Scripps News spoke with political strategists and experts of all political stripes to hear what they expect to glean from Tuesday’s contests.
Will Democratic successes drive Republican moderation?
Both Republican and Democratic strategists expect Democrats to win the governors’ mansions in Virginia and New Jersey, and most think voters will approve California’s controversial redistricting measure, too.
But how big a win they earn and whether those expected victories should be attributed to growing Democratic enthusiasm or merely the dynamics of the local races remains an open question.
"I expect Dems to win in New Jersey, Virginia and the California redistricting. But that’s because Democrats usually win there,” said Heye. “[Virginia’s Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail] Spanberger is a good candidate, [GOP nominee Winsome Earle] Sears is not."
Simon Rosenberg, a prominent Democratic strategist and media commentator, argued the national environment significantly favors Democrats currently.
“Trump is failing politically. He's unpopular. His agenda is even more unpopular than he is,” Rosenberg told Scripps News. “Between 60 and 70% of the country is not on board most of [Republicans'] agenda. And the Republican candidates in 2026 have to run on that agenda, not on Trump. And that agenda is much more unpopular than he is.”
To that end, experts on both sides of the aisle pointed to Democratic candidates’ strong messaging about the economy and affordability. Whereas 53 percent of voters in key swing states said they believed Trump was better poised than then-Vice President Kamala Harris to address economic issues in the 2024 presidential race, according to exit polls, voters’ perceptions of Trump’s handling of the economy since he assumed office have soured significantly, with more than six-in-ten voters now saying his policies have worsened economic conditions.
Strategists pointed to the fact that Trump, though vocal on social media, has been far less active campaigning for Republican candidates this cycle than he has been previously. The president never formally endorsed Earle-Sears, nor campaigned in person for New Jersey Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli.
Moreover, though the Republican National Committee invested hundreds of thousands of dollars into key races, according to RNC officials, Trump’s personal SuperPAC didn’t appear to invest in any races in 2025, FCC records show.
Some strategists argue this represents a tacit acknowledgement by the White House and Republican leaders of the president’s unpopularity.
Trump is in a “weakened place, and it's getting harder for [Republicans] to ignore the failures of his government and his escalating unpopularity and his increasingly erratic behavior in the White House,” Rosenberg argued.
“[Republicans] are going to have to find some way to kind of break from Donald Trump at least a little more in [next year’s] general election,” echoed Miles Coleman.
Asked what Tuesday’s elections might signal about voters’ perceptions of Trump’s job in office, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt demurred.
“I'm not at liberty to talk about the election results, and I certainly won't get ahead of them,” she told reporters Tuesday. “I'm not going to engage in hypotheticals that may or may not happen tonight. We'll have to watch and see. I'm sure you'll hear directly from the President tomorrow.”
Should the elections go as expected, Rosenberg predicted Republican officeholders might become more emboldened to break from the president.
“My general view about all this is that [Republicans’] thing is weaker and more broken than the conventional wisdom, and that perhaps the election could crystallize all this a little bit more for the national discourse,” he said. “If the election comes out the way it looks right now, and Trump is perceived to be in a weakened state, will there be an effort in the next few months to for Republicans to course-correct on some of the more most unpopular and damaging things to give them a better chance of being competitive in the elections next year?”
Can Democrats find winning messages and messengers?
Though national polling shows voters souring on Trump, opinions about Democrats aren’t much better.
Just 29 percent of Americans hold a favorable view of the Democratic Party, a recent CNN/SSRI poll found, with 55 percent viewing the Party unfavorably – the worst numbers for Democrats in at least 20 years.
Should Spanberger, Democratic New Jersey gubernatorial nominee Rep. Mikie Sherrill and New York City Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani each win in their respective races, will they be looked to as the “future” of the Democratic movement?
Already, Republicans are working to elevate Mamdani – a Democratic socialist who’s been highly critical of party establishment – as a foil representing all Democrats. Trump has referred to him as “communist” and threatened to cut off federal funding to New York should he win, while Republicans throughout the country have referenced his campaign and platform in their own messaging.
Spanberger and Sherrill, conversely, are seen as more moderate candidates. Both were first elected in the 2018 Democratic “wave” that saw suburban women push Democrats to victory, and both have relied on their national security backgrounds to bolster their credentials.
If all three win, which direction should the Democratic Party go? Like most questions in politics, it depends on who you ask.
If Spanberger and Sherrill “overperform” in their races but Mamdani narrowly ekes out a win, that might be a sign for Democrats to stick to a “moderate type of lane,” Miles Coleman argued. Conversely, if Mamdani surges while the other candidates narrowly win, that might signal Democratic voters’ eagerness for more progressive policies.
Even still, framing the question as “moderate versus progressive” is not entirely accurate, experts said. Though Spanberger and Sherrill might not identify as Democratic socialists, they’ve still staked out fairly liberal policy positions; “she’s not [former U.S. Sen.] Joe Manchin,” Coleman said of Spanberger.
Moreover, some expect Tuesday’s elections to break less on ideological lines than on voters’ perceptions of Democratic candidates’ electability and willingness to stand up to Trump. In that sense, there might be lessons to be gleaned from all the candidates.
“You talk to a lot of mainstream Democrats, and they'll at least say, ‘Okay, well, I don't agree with all of Mamdani’s policy prescriptions, but he is right to be talking about affordability.’ Or, ‘I admire that he's going to run around every street campaigning, and I admire his energy,’” Coleman said.
“I think there are some things like that that, you know, the more kind of moderate Democratic campaigns could learn from.”
Others, meanwhile, cautioned against leaning too hard into Tuesday’s election results.
“I remember when [New York City Mayor] Eric Adams was the future of the party, and [former mayor Bill] De Blasio before that,” Heye remarked. “There is a constant in our politics and media to immediately set narratives in stone, whether they’re true or not."
One thing everyone agreed on? The Democratic brand needs a victory, and Tuesday’s elections were likely to deliver it in one way or another.
“Democrats need a win,” Rosenberg said. “Just winning is going to be really important. And I think that, whatever flavor of Democrat you are, you're going to have something to point to as something that you're excited about if the wins come the way we think they will.”
