TUCSON, Ariz -- (KGUN) — In recent modern American history, the voting public has held the U.S. Supreme Court in higher regard when compared to the two other branches of federal government.
Recent polling, however, shows public opinion has changed since the court’s majority of conservative justice ruled to reverse the precedent on abortion, set by landmark cases like Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey.
New data collected through the Associated Press/NORC Center for Public Affairs Research asked close to 1,100 adults their level of confidence in the institution.
When asked in April, 54% of respondents said they had some sense of confidence in justice, compared to 18% who said they held a great deal of confidence.
A follow up in July asked adults how they felt then, knowing the Supreme Court made its decision in the controversial case Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.
In this survey: 43% of respondents said they now had hardly any confidence in the high court. 39% of adults now said they held some confidence in the institution. The share of respondents who said they still had great confidence barely changed (17% in July).
KGUN 9 sat down to talk to two political scientists and associate professors at the University of Arizona’s College of Social and Behavioral Sciences.
Both faculty members in the School of Government and Public Policy offered their respective insight into the state of American politics before and after the Dobbs decision. They also discussed how much they think the Dobbs ruling could motivate specific voters ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.
Chris Weber’s research focuses on political psychology and electoral behavior. When asked about the country’s current level of political polarization, he said right now feels more like what it was during Reconstruction and before the Civil War.
"We're not talking about party politics as they existed in the 1950s, 60s, 70s or 80s,” Weber said. "Things have qualitatively changed."
Looking at another July poll, from the University of Chicago's Institute of Politics, 73% of voters asked, who identify as members of the Republican Party, said they thought Democrats were "generally bullies who want to impose their political beliefs on those who disagree."
74% of self-identified Democrat voters in the poll s responding, said they felt the same way about their counterparts.
"It's become harder to tease apart whether single issues matter versus just overall partisanship,” Weber said. When it comes to single-issue voting, Weber also said the debate over abortion rights has been a unique motivator for conservative groups in contemporary politics.
Could the same issue motivate a counter-movement from a large swath of more liberal voters? "It very well may,” Weber answered, “but that's up to politicians to create and craft a coherent message."
Weber’s colleague Chad Westerland focuses on federal courts for his research. He summed up his short-term expectations on voter turnout by noting there has been a researched trend of losing groups being mobilized after electoral or judicial defeats.
"The efforts in the concentrated in response to Dobbs -- There is more energy on that issue for Democrats than there has been in a very long time."
Two questions in the AP/NORC July survey yielded noticeable bipartisan overlap when factoring in political party preferences.
Should a Supreme Court justice have a term limit?
More than two out of every three adults asked said, “yes,” they would strongly or somewhat favor that rule.
Should Supreme Court justices be required to retire once they reach a specific age?
64% said they would also favor that idea to some degree.
While Westerland agrees the Supreme Court is now another polarizing topic, he said that was the case even before the 2020 presidential elections.
As is stands, with a stronger majority of conservative justices, Westerland said he is interested to see if specific future decisions alienate Republican voters who now hold the institution in higher regard than ever before.
"That's always a concern is that if as the supreme court loses its legitimacy, that might have the sort of roll-on effects for just rule of law in general,” Westerland said.
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José Zozaya is an anchor and reporter for KGUN 9. Before arriving in southern Arizona, José worked in Omaha, Nebraska where he covered issues ranging from local, state and federal elections, to toxic chemical spills, and community programs impacting immigrant families. Share your story ideas and important issues with José by emailing jose.zozaya@kgun9.com or by connecting on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter.