GREEN VALLEY, Ariz. (KGUN) — As consumer confidence dips for the fifth consecutive month, business owners along the U.S.-Mexico border are voicing growing concerns about the region’s economic future.
On Tuesday, the United Methodist Church of Green Valley hosted a forum led by the Community Border Alliance (CBA) to address the mounting pressures caused by shifting trade policies.
The event brought together a panel of seasoned voices in border commerce, including Evan Kory, co-owner of Cinderella and Kory’s Bridal in Nogales, Arizona; Luis Torres, a CPA representing assembly plants in Sonora; and Guillermo Valencia, founder of Valencia International, a major produce importer and exporter.
While each panelist represented a different facet of the local economy, they all pointed to a common challenge: uncertainty.
CBA organized the forum to help the community "see what's really happening" in the borderlands area.
CBA organized the forum as the issue of tariffs and trade policy has dominated the nation's psyche.
"It's something that's on all our minds and is deeply affecting the economic structure of the borderlands," said CBA Tours and Forums Director Ann Gibson."
The nonprofit makes it a point to be a "non-political" organization that wants "people to go home and make whatever judgment call they want to make."
Retail Businesses Brace for Impact
Evan Kory, whose family has operated retail stores in Nogales since 1947, discussed how volatile trade relations with China and Mexico are affecting his ability to plan for future inventory.
“Many of our manufacturers are already saying they’re not even going to produce merchandise for fall and winter if this continues,” Kory said. “So we’re really just waiting. We’re holding tight right now and it’s sort of a wild ride waiting to see how it develops.”
Beyond the challenges of sourcing inventory, Kory also emphasized the role of local culture and public art in promoting economic resilience. He highlighted efforts to boost tourism through projects like public murals, which he sees as essential to drawing visitors and keeping Nogales vibrant.
A Community Split by a Border, United by Trade
Accountant Luis Torres reflected on the evolving dynamics between Nogales, Arizona and Nogales, Sonora — two communities with a shared history but increasingly complex economic realities.
Torres, who grew up shopping on Morley Avenue before moving to the Mexican side of the border, now represents maquiladoras, or assembly plants, in Sonora. According to him, uncertainty around trade policy has frozen planned investments for 2025.
“The maquiladoras that wanted to expand have gone into a pause mode,” Torres said. “But it doesn’t mean they’re shutting down — just waiting for the dust to settle.”
A Once-in-a-Generation Crisis
For Guillermo Valencia, the stakes are even higher. His company, Valencia International, is responsible for moving tens of billions of dollars in produce through the Mariposa Port of Entry — a key gateway responsible for $34 billion of the $60 billion in U.S.-Mexico trade flowing through Arizona annually.
Valencia warned that the region is still grappling with the fallout from just three days of tariffs last year — a sudden move that left businesses scrambling.
“One of our berry importers paid $5 million in duties over those three days,” Valencia said. “We’re used to paying $1 million a year. That shot up to what could’ve been $500 million. It put our customers at risk, it put us at risk. It’s a chain reaction.”
He said the short notice left importers with no time to prepare, eroding trust and sending a chilling message to investors. “Some customers stopped their shipments,” he said. “Others haven’t come back. We have no new clients right now.”
More broadly, Valencia questioned whether recent calls to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. are realistic, using copper smelting as an example.
“We dig copper here but smelt it overseas — that’s a choice we made. Do we really want to bring smelting back?” he asked. “There are aspects of manufacturing we may not want to return.”
A Fragile Future for North American Trade
Despite the dire tone, the panelists agreed that trade between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada remains essential — but fragile.
“Every dollar coming into Mexico is 40% from the U.S.,” Valencia said. “We build things together. And there’s nothing wrong with that. Can we make trade deals better? Yes. But should we blow them up? I don’t think so.”
The takeaway from the forum was clear: border businesses aren’t just facing economic headwinds — they’re weathering a storm of unpredictability. And until there’s clarity from Washington, many are simply in “wait and see” mode.
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Joel Foster is a multimedia journalist at KGUN 9 who previously worked as an English teacher in both Boston and the Tucson area. Joel has experience working with web, print and video in the tech, finance, nonprofit and the public sectors. In his off-time, you might catch Joel taking part in Tucson's local comedy scene. Share your story ideas with Joel at joel.foster@kgun9.com, or by connecting on Facebook, Instagram or X.
